Tropical Cyclone Lincoln could weaken into a tropical low before making landfall in WA on Sunday but residents are still in for a wet and windy weekend.

February 24, 2024

Communities in Western Australia’s northwest are in for a wet and windy weekend as Tropical Cyclone Lincoln edges closer to the coast, but it could make landfall as a much weaker weather system than initially predicted.

The massive weather system is moving south towards the Gascoyne coast, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting it will make landfall as a category 1 cyclone or tropical low late Saturday or Sunday.

The system was initially predicted to cross the coast south of Coral Bay as a category 1 or 2 system on Saturday but late on Friday a bureau track map revealed the projections had been scaled back.

Lincoln’s centre is now likely to stay offshore until Sunday and travel further south, past Carnarvon and cross the coast near Shark Bay.

Meteorologist James Ashley said wind gusts in the Carnarvon-Shark Bay area were likley to reach 100 to 120km/hr, which is “still enough wind to produce damage but certainly not the intense cyclone systems that we can have in WA”.

Heavy rainfall of 50 to 150mm is possible over 24 hours, along with flash flooding.

The system is forecast to weaken further as it moves across land, southeast through the state’s central west, with flash flooding possible in some areas.

A cyclone yellow alert was issued late Friday for people in or near coastal communities and offshore islands between North West Cape, Coral Bay and Giralia, including Exmouth.

“There is a possible threat to lives and homes as a cyclone is approaching the area,” the Department of Fire and Emergency Services warned.

A cyclone blue alert has been issued for the area from Onslow south to Overlander Roadhouse, with residents urged to prepare for severe weather, destructive winds and potential flooding.

Evacuation centres have been opened in Carnarvon and Exmouth and the North West Coastal Highway and six other key roads in the area will be closed on Saturday.

Flood watches have been issued for catchments along the Pilbara and Gascoyne coastlines, and urban search and rescue specialists are among the dozens of emergency service personnel deployed to communities likely to be affected by the cyclone.

Lincoln crossed the Northern Territory coast late last week as a category 1 tropical cyclone from the Gulf of Carpentaria before moving inland across the Top End and into WA as a storm.

It dumped heavy rain across a wide area triggering flood watches and warnings in northwest Queensland, the NT and northern WA before moving offshore again on Wednesday.