Authorities say ex-tropical cyclone Lincoln is unlikely to develop into a severe tropical cyclone but remains on track to slam into WA’s northwest coast.

February 23, 2024

A massive weather system brewing off the Western Australian coast remains on track to make landfall but authorities say it’s unlikely to become a severe tropical cyclone.

Ex-tropical cyclone Lincoln is expected to re-form late on Friday, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting it will slam into the coast near Carnarvon as a category 1 or 2 system the following day.

Meteorologist James Ashley said dangerous winds and heavy rainfall were likely in the northwest coastal area as Lincoln gathered strength and moved south.

“The system is currently well to the north of the Onslow-Exmouth area and tracking west to southwest before turning on a more southerly trajectory later today,” he told reporters on Friday.

“The most likely path of the cyclone will take is to the west of Exmouth on Saturday morning, and then southwards towards the Gascoyne Coast later on Saturday, with a coastal crossing possible in the area around Coral Bay and Carnarvon in the late evening.”

Mr Ashley said a “severe tropical cyclone impact was increasingly unlikely” but communities should prepare for heavy rain and strong wind.

“We’re expecting the peak intensity to be a category two, with winds up to 130km/hr. as it nears the coast,” he said.

“By the time it gets around the sort of Carnarvon-Shark Bay area, it will likely be 100 to 120km/hr gusts … still enough wind to produce damage but certainly not the intense cyclone systems that we can have in WA.”

Rainfall of 50 to 150mm is possible over 24 hours.

The system is forecast to weaken to a tropical low early Sunday morning and move southeast through the state’s central west, with flash flooding possible in some areas.

A cyclone blue alert has been issued for the area from Mardie south to Overlander Roadhouse, with residents urged to prepare for severe weather, destructive winds and potential flooding.

An evacuation centre is open at Carnarvon Civic Centre, and the North West Coastal Highway and six other key roads in the area will be closed on Saturday.

Flood watches have been issued for catchments along the Pilbara and Gascoyne coastlines, and urban search and rescue specialists are among the dozens of emergency service personnel deployed to communities likely to be affected by the cyclone.

Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Darren Klemm said his department was well prepared and assisting communities to prepare for the storm’s arrival.

“People camping around Shark Bay and Denham, in fact, everywhere south of Exmouth, should consider relocating now,” he said.

Lincoln crossed the Northern Territory coast late last week as a category 1 tropical cyclone from the Gulf of Carpentaria before moving inland across the Top End and into WA as a storm.

It dumped heavy rain across a wide area triggering flood watches and warnings in northwest Queensland, the NT and northern WA before moving offshore again on Wednesday.